Historically gold bull markets have lasted as many as 15 to 25 years, this one has only been going since 2001.
Author: David Levenstein
Posted: Monday , 11 Jan 2010
JOHANNESBURG -
As we enter the beginning of another year, and wonder what to expect for the year regarding the different markets, I for one am extremely bullish on gold. Last year was a great year for the precious metals, gold, silver, palladium and platinum with gold and silver increasing in value by 26% and 57% respectively. For the last nine consecutive years, gold's performance has been one of the best out of all the different asset classes. Despite this, there are analysts who continue to denigrate gold as an investment. Obviously they don't have a clue about precious metals and fail to see what an upward trend or bull-market is.
There was a time when every single central bank, bullion dealer and investment advisor wanted to sell gold, but since 2001 the fundamentals driving the gold price have changed. Even though gold has continued to perform well each year since 2001, this bull market is far from over. So, how long can this market last? I believe at least another 5 to 7 years if not more. Historically, commodity bull markets have lasted between 15 and 25 years, so if this market was to last only 15 years, that means there is still another 6 years to go. Of course it is almost impossible to accurately predict the duration of these major moves and the ultimate high in prices but, looking at the fundamentals that began this move in gold, they all look extremely positive. Thus, the probability that we will see gold to continue to move upwards is a lot greater than the chances of it plummeting back down to US$800.
About the author
David Levenstein is a leading expert on investing in precious metals .He brings over 29 years experience in futures, equities, forex and bullion. And, although he began trading silver through the LME in 1980, when it comes to gold, he has traded gold bullion, gold coins, gold shares, gold ETF, gold funds and gold futures for his personal account as well as for clients. Over the years, David has been published in dozens of publications and has appeared on CNBC and Summit TV (South Africa), and is a regular guest on JSE Direct, a premier radio business channel in Johannesburg, South Africa. He is also a regular commentator on www.kitco.com and www.mineweb.com David has lived and worked in Johannesburg, Los Angeles, London, Hong Kong, Bangkok, and Bali.
